Abstract: Coastal communities are flooding more often due to sea level rise (SLR), but some years are worse than others. We use a statistical model to show how the probabilities of coastal high waters, often referred to as extreme water levels?a combination of above average tides and storm surge?have shifted higher or lower every year with SLR and from changes in the tides and climatic (persistent weather and ocean) patterns. There are many U.S. and Pacific coastal regions where year?to?year variability is 15 cm or more, which is as large as the last 30 years of SLR and this pattern is projected to continue over the next 30 years. Considering additional SLR over the next 30 years could help compensate for year?to?year variability.

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