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Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate

Abstract: The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), widely used to assess wildfire danger, typically relies on noonspecific meteorological data. However, climate models often provide only daily aggregated values, posing a challenge for accurate FWI calculations.Weevaluated daily approximations for FWI95d-the annual count of extreme fire-weather days-against the standard noon-based method (1980-2023). Our findings reveal that noon-based FWI95d show a global increase of ~65% (11.66 days over 44 years). In contrast, daily approximations tend to overestimate these trends by 5-10%, with combinations involving minimum relative humidity showing the largest divergences. Globally, up to 15 million km²-particularly in the western United States, southern Africa, and parts of Asia-exhibit significant overestimations. We recommend (i) prioritizing the inclusion of sub-daily meteorological data in future climatemodel intercomparison projects to enhanceFWI accuracy, and (ii) adopting daily mean approximations as the least-biased alternative if noon-specific data are unavailable.

 Authorship: Matteo A., Garnés-Morales G., Moreno A., Ribeiro A.F.S., Azorin-Molina C., Bedia J., Di Giuseppe F., Dunn R.J.H., Herrera S., Provenzale A., Quilcaille Y., Torres-Vázquez M.Á., Turco M.,

 Fuente: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2025, 8, 284

 Publisher: Springer Nature

 Publication date: 28/07/2025

 No. of pages: 8

 Publication type: Article

 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01163-0

 ISSN: 2397-3722

 Spanish project: PID2021-123193OB-I00

 Publication Url: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01163-0

Authorship

MATTEO, AURORA

GARNÉS MORALES, GINÉS

MORENO, ALBERTO

RIBEIRO, ANDREIA

AZORÍN MOLINA, CÉSAR

DI GIUSEPPE, FRANCESCA

DUNN, ROBERT J.H.

PROVENZALE, ANTONELLO

QUILCAILLE, YANN

TORRES VÁZQUEZ, MIGUEL ÁNGEL

TURCO, MARCO