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The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

Abstract: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models? weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ?20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP?2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

Otras publicaciones de la misma revista o congreso con autores/as de la Universidad de Cantabria

 Fuente: Frontiers in Earth Science March 2021 Volume 8 Article 616594

Editorial: Frontiers Media

 Fecha de publicación: 01/03/2021

Nº de páginas: 29

Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

 DOI: 10.3389/feart.2020.616594

ISSN: 1863-4621,1863-463X

Url de la publicación: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2020.616594/full

Autores/as

BASILI, ROBERTO

BRIZUELA, BEATRIZ

HERRERO, ANDRE

IQBAL, SARFRAZ

LORITO, STEFANO

MAESANO, FRANCESCO EMANUELE

MURPHY, SHANE

PERFETTI, PAOLO

ROMANO, FABRIZIO

SCALA, ANTONIO

SELVA, JACOPO

TARONI, MATTEO

TIBERTI, MARA MONICA

THIO, HONG KIE

TONINI, ROBERTO

VOLPE, MANUELA

GLIMSDAL, SYLFEST

HARBIT, CARL BONNEVIE

LØVHOLT, FINN

BAPTISTA, MARÍA ANA

CARRILHO, FERNANDO

MATIAS, LUIS MANUEL

OMIRA, RACHID

BABEYKO, ANDREY

HOECHNER, ANDREAS

GÜRBÜZ, MÜCAHIT

PEKCAN, ONUR

YALÇINER, AHMET

CANALS, MIQUEL

LASTRAS, GALDERIC

AGALOS, APOSTOLOS

PAPADOPOULOS, GERASSIMOS

TRIANTAFYLLOU, IOANNA

BENCHEKROUN, SABAH

JAOUAD, HEDI AGREBI

ABDALLAH, SAMIR BEN

BOUALLEGUE, ATEF

HAMDI, HASSENE

OUESLATI, FOUED

AMATO, ALESSANDRO

ARMIGLIATO, ALBERTO

BEHRENS, JÖRN

DAVIES, GARETH

DI BUCCI, DANIELA

DOLCE, MAURO

GEIST, ERIC

GONZALEZ VIDA, JOSE MANUEL

MACIAS SANCHEZ, JORGE

MELETTI, CARLO

OZER SOZDINLER, CEREN

PAGANI, MARCO

PARSONS, TOM

POLET, JASCHA

POWER, WILLIAM

SØRENSEN, MATHILDE

ZAYTSEV, ANDREY