Abstract: The spatial and temporal variability of extreme wave climate along the Central-South American continent is analyzed. The study evaluates changes in the intensity of extreme significant wave height (SWH) throughout the year over the 1980?2008 period, using a calibrated long-term wave reanalysis database forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. A non-stationary extreme value model, based on monthly maxima with a new approach for long-term trends, has been applied. Results show a common positive trend in the Pacific basin throughout all seasons and a significant decreasing trend pattern in the area of Surinam and north of Brazil, on the Atlantic border (up to ?1.5 cm/year in March?April?May). A higher increase of the extreme wave heights is found in the austral summer (December?January?February) at Tierra de Fuego and the Falkland Islands, reaching 6.5 cm/year (which means 1.82 m for the 28 years studied). Furthermore, the complete reanalysis period (1948?2008) is analyzed in order to compare results with the assimilation data period (1980?2008), resulting in some discrepancies, especially in the Atlantic basin.

Autoría

Descargar referencia