Buscar

Estamos realizando la búsqueda. Por favor, espere...

 Detalle_Publicacion

Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score

Abstract: Objective To develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms. Design Multivariable prognostic prediction model. Setting 127 Spanish hospitals. Participants Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively. Interventions Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Main outcome measures 30-day mortality. Results Patients? characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806?0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819?0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0?2 points (0%?2.1%), moderate with 3?5 (4.7%?6.3%), high with 6?8 (10.6%?19.5%) and very high with 9?30 (27.7%?100%). Conclusions A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19.

 Fuente: Thorax 2021;76:920-929

Editorial: BMJ Publishing Group

 Fecha de publicación: 25/02/2021

Nº de páginas: 10

Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

 DOI: doi:10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216001

ISSN: 0040-6376,1468-3296

Url de la publicación: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/ thoraxjnl-2020-216001

Autores/as

BERENGUER, JUAN

BOROBIA, ALBERTO M.

RYAN, PABLO

RODRÍGUEZ BAÑO, JESÚS

BELLÓN, JOSE M.

JARRÍN, INMACULADA

CARRATALÀ, JORDI

PACHÓN, JERÓNIMO

CARCAS, ANTONIO J.

YLLESCAS, MARÍA