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A multivariate extreme wave and storm surge climate emulator based on weather patterns

Abstract: Coastal floods often coincide with large waves, storm surge and tides. Thus, joint probability methods are needed to properly characterize extreme sea levels. This work introduces a statistical downscaling framework for multivariate extremes that relates the non-stationary behavior of coastal flooding events to the occurrence probability of daily weather patterns. The proposed method is based on recently-developed weather-type methods to predict extreme events (e.g., significant wave height, mean wave period, surge level) from large-scale sea-level pressure fields. For each weather type, variables of interest are modeled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions and a Gaussian copula for modelling the interdependence between variables. The statistical dependence between consecutive days is addressed by defining a climate-based extremal index for each weather type. This work allows attribution of extreme events to specific weather conditions, enhancing the knowledge of climate-driven coastal flooding.

 Fuente: Ocean Modelling Volume 104, August 2016, Pages 242–251

Editorial: Elsevier Ltd

 Fecha de publicación: 01/08/2016

Nº de páginas: 10

Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.06.008

ISSN: 1463-5003,1463-5011

Proyecto español: BIA2014-59643-R .

Url de la publicación: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.06.008