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Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models

Abstract: The observed trend towards warmer and drier conditions in southern Europe is projected to continue in the next decades, possibly leading to increased risk of large fires. However, an assessment of climate change impacts on fires at and above the 1.5 °C Paris target is still missing. Here, we estimate future summer burned area in Mediterranean Europe under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming scenarios, accounting for possible modifications of climate-fire relationships under changed climatic conditions owing to productivity alterations. We found that such modifications could be beneficial, roughly halving the fire-intensifying signals. In any case, the burned area is robustly projected to increase. The higher the warming level is, the larger is the increase of burned area, ranging from ~40% to ~100% across the scenarios. Our results indicate that significant benefits would be obtained if warming were limited to well below 2 °C.

Otras publicaciones de la misma revista o congreso con autores/as de la Universidad de Cantabria

 Fuente: Nature Communications (2018) 9:3821

Editorial: Nature Publishing Group

 Fecha de publicación: 01/09/2018

Nº de páginas: 9

Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06358-z

ISSN: 2041-1723

Url de la publicación: https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06358-z

Autores/as

TURCO, MARCO

ROSA CÁNOVAS, JUAN JOSÉ

JEREZ, SONIA

MONTÁVEZ, JUAN PEDRO

LLASAT, MARIA CARMEN

PROVENZALE, ANTONELLO