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Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Abstract: Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5?15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5?15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world?s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

Otras publicaciones de la misma revista o congreso con autores/as de la Universidad de Cantabria

 Fuente: Nature Climate Change volume 9, pages711-718(2019)

Editorial: Springer Nature

 Fecha de publicación: 01/09/2019

Nº de páginas: 59

Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5

ISSN: 1758-678X,1758-6798

Url de la publicación: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0542-5#auth-27

Autores/as

MORIM, JOAO

HEMER, MARK

WANG, XIAOLAN L.

CARTWRIGHT, NICK

TRENHAM, CLAIRE

SEMEDO, ALVARO

YOUNG, IAN

BRICHENO, LUCY

PAULA CAMUS BRAÑA

CASAS-PRAT, MERCÈ

ERIKSON, LI

MENTASCHI, LORENZO

MORI, NOBUHITO

SHIMURA, TOMOYA

TIMMERMANS, BEN

AARNES, OLE

BREIVIK, ØYVIND

BEHRENS, ARNO

DOBRYNIN, MIKHAIL

STANEVA, JOANA

WEHNER, MICHAEL

WOLF, JUDITH

KAMRANZAD, BAHAREH

WEBB, ADREAN

STOPA, JUSTIN

ANDUTTA, FERNANDO