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Abstract: Background: In younger individuals, low absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) may conceal an increased risk age and relative risk of CVD. Calculation of risk age is proposed as an adjuvant to absolute CVD risk estimation in European guidelines. We aimed to compare the discriminative ability of available risk age models in prediction of CVD in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Secondly, we also evaluated the performance of risk age models in subgroups based on RA disease characteristics. Methods: RA patients aged 30?70 years were included from an international consortium named A Trans-Atlantic Cardiovascular Consortium for Rheumatoid Arthritis (ATACC-RA). Prior CVD and diabetes mellitus were exclusión criteria. The discriminatory ability of specific risk age models was evaluated using c-statistics and their standard errors after calculating time until fatal or non-fatal CVD or last follow-up. Results: A total of 1974 patients were included in the main analyses, and 144 events were observed during followup, the median follow-up being 5.0 years. The risk age models gave highly correlated results, demonstrating R2 values ranging from 0.87 to 0.97. However, risk age estimations differed > 5 years in 15?32% of patients. C-statistics ranged 0.68?0.72 with standard errors of approximately 0.03. Despite certain RA characteristics being associated with low c-indices, standard errors were high. Restricting analysis to European RA patients yielded similar results. Conclusions: The cardiovascular risk age and vascular age models have comparable performance in predicting CVD in RA patients. The influence of RA disease characteristics on the predictive ability of these prediction models remains inconclusive.
Fuente: Arthritis Research & Therapy (2020) (2020) 22:90
Editorial: BioMed Central
Año de publicación: 2020
Nº de páginas: 10
Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista
DOI: 10.1186/s13075-020-02178-z
ISSN: 1478-6354,1478-6362
Url de la publicación: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13075-020-02178-z
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GRUNDE WIBETOE
JOSEPH SEXTON
EIRIK IKDAHL
SILVIA ROLLEFSTAD
GEORGE D. KITAS
PIET VAN RIEL
SHERINE GABRIEL
TORE K. KVIEN
KAREN DOUGLAS
AAMER SANDOO
ELKE E. ARTS
SOLVEIG WÅLLBERG-JONSSON
SOLBRITT RANTAPÄÄ DAHLQVIST
GEORGE KARPOUZAS
PATRICK H. DESSEIN
LINDA TSANG
HANI EL-GABALAWY
CAROL A. HITCHON
VIRGINIA PASCUAL-RAMOS
MIGUEL ANGEL GONZALEZ-GAY MANTECON
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