Search

Searching. Please wait…

Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate

Abstract: Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming.

 Autoría: Du H., Donat M.G., Zong S., Alexander L.V., Manzanas R., Kruger A., Choi G., Salinger J., He H.S., Li M.H., Fujibe F., Nandintsetseg B., Rehman S., Abbas F., Rusticucci M., Srivastava A., Zhai P., Lippmann T., Yabi I., Stambaugh M.C., Wang S., Batbold A., de Oliveira P.T., Adrees M., Hou W., Santos e Silva C.M., Lucio P.S., Wu Z.,

 Fuente: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, 103(4), 1130-1145

 Editorial: American Meteorological Society

 Fecha de publicación: 01/04/2022

 Nº de páginas: 16

 Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

 DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1

 ISSN: 0003-0007,1520-0477

 Url de la publicación: http://doi.com/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1

Authorship

DU, HAIBO

DONAT, MARKUS G.

ZONG, SHENGWEI

ALEXANDER, LISA V.

KRUGER, ANDRIES

CHOI, GWANGYONG

SALINGER, JIM

HE, HONG S.

LI, MAI-HE

FUJIBE, FUMIAKI

NANDINTSETSEG, BANZRAGCH

REHMAN, SHAFIQUR

ABBAS, FARHAT

RUSTICUCCI, MATILDE

SRIVASTAVA, ARVIND

ZHAI, PANMAO

LIPPMANN, TANYA

YABI, IBOURAÏMA

STAMBAUGH, MICHAEL C.