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A hybrid regional climate downscaling for the southern Brazil coastal region

Abstract: A hybrid method is applied to generate a high-resolution regional downscaling of atmospheric conditions to the southern coast of Brazil. The method consists of applying a principal component analysis to daily fields of the sea level pressure (SLP) data from the NCEP-CFSR reanalysis. A cluster analysis (K-means) is then applied to the 87 principal components that explained 95% of the variance of the time series. Daily atmospheric conditions were clustered into 36 weather types which represent the most predominant conditions observed in the study area. The estimated weather types were able to represent the major atmospheric systems affecting local climate, including the cyclones and anticyclones that are usually present in this region. Then, we applied the numerical Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM) to dynamically downscale the atmospheric condition that is closest to the centroid of each cluster. The model was set with a global grid and a refining approach with 6 km grid spacing over the coastal region of south Brazil. This approach allowed us to represent simultaneously the planetary waves and the local mesoscale systems, and their mutual interactions. The results provided new high-resolution atmospheric fields for the coastal region and showed that the model was capable of resolving the major local mesoscale features. The main advantage of applying such a method is in reducing the number of numerical simulations (lower computational cost) at the same time it represents the totality of the atmospheric conditions observed in the study area. The final results consist in detailed information of the local climate that can be related to injuries to the coastal area and thus is useful to support decision-makers.

Otras publicaciones de la misma revista o congreso con autores/as de la Universidad de Cantabria

 Fuente: International Journal of Climatology 2022, 18pp

Editorial: John Wiley and Sons Ltd

 Fecha de publicación: 01/03/2022

Nº de páginas: 18

Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

 DOI: 10.1002/joc.7607

ISSN: 0899-8418,1097-0088

 Proyecto español: PID2019-107053RB-I00

Url de la publicación: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.7607

Autoría

COUTO DE SOUZA, DANILO

RAMOS DA SILVA, RENATO

GOMES DA SILVA, PAULA

HÄRTER FETTER FILHO, ANTONIO FERNANDO