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The risk of death in newborn businesses during the first years in market

Abstract: In this paper, we analysed how business age and mortality are related during the first years of life, and tested the different hypotheses proposed in the literature. For that, we used data on US business establishments, with 1-year resolution in the range of age of 0-5 years, in the period 1978-2019, published by the US Census Bureau. First, we explored the adaptation of classical techniques of survival analysis (the life table and Peto-Turnbull methods) to business survival analysis. Then, we considered nine parametric probabilistic models, most of them well known in reliability analysis and in the actuarial literature, with different shapes of the hazard function, that we fitted by maximum-likelihood method and compared with the Akaike information criterion. Our findings show that newborn firms seem to have a decreasing failure rate with age during the first 5 years in market, with the exception of the first months of some years in which the risk can rise.

 Autoría: Prieto F., Sarabia J.M., Calderín-Ojeda E.,

 Fuente: Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol. 478, Issue 2263, Article number 20210952

 Editorial: Royal Society (Great Britain)

 Fecha de publicación: 01/07/2022

 Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

 DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2021.0952

 ISSN: 1364-5021,1471-2946