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Abstract: Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5?15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5?15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world?s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.
Fuente: Nature Climate Change volume 9, pages711-718(2019)
Editorial: Springer Nature
Fecha de publicación: 01/09/2019
Nº de páginas: 59
Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
ISSN: 1758-678X,1758-6798
Url de la publicación: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0542-5#auth-27
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HEMER, MARK
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WEHNER, MICHAEL
WOLF, JUDITH
KAMRANZAD, BAHAREH
WEBB, ADREAN
STOPA, JUSTIN
ANDUTTA, FERNANDO
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