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Evaluation and projection of daily temperature percentiles from statistical and dynamical downscaling methods

Abstract: The study of extreme events has become of great interest in recent years due to their direct impact on society. Extremes are usually evaluated by using extreme indicators, based on order statistics on the tail of the probability distribution function (typically percentiles). In this study, we focus on the tail of the distribution of daily maximum and minimum temperatures. For this purpose, we analyse high (95th) and low (5th) percentiles in daily maximum and minimum temperatures on the Iberian Peninsula, respectively, derived from different downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical). First, we analyse the performance of reanalysis-driven downscaling methods in present climate conditions. The comparison among the different methods is performed in terms of the bias of seasonal percentiles, considering as observations the public gridded data sets E-OBS and Spain02, and obtaining an estimation of both the mean and spatial percentile errors. Secondly, we analyse the increments of future percentile projections under the SRES A1B scenario and compare them with those corresponding to the mean temperature, showing that their relative importance depends on the method, and stressing the need to consider an ensemble of methodologies.

 Autoría: Casanueva A., Herrera S., Fernández J., Frías M., Gutiérrez J.,

 Fuente: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Volume 13, Issue 8, 2013, Pages 2089-2099

 Editorial: European Geosciences Union (EGU) ; Copernicus Publications (editor comercial)

 Año de publicación: 2013

 Nº de páginas: 11

 Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-13-2089-2013

 ISSN: 1561-8633,1684-9981

 Proyecto español: CGL2010-22158-C02 ; CGL2010-21869; 200800050084078

 Proyecto europeo: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/243888/EU/Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world/FUME/