Abstract: Objective: To investigate if the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and the QRISK3 algorithms as well as the carotid ultrasound are useful predictors of cardiovascular (CV) events and death in a prospectively defined population-based rheumatoid arthritis (RA) inception cohort. Methods: A set of 327 consecutive RA patients without history of diabetes, chronic kidney disease or CV events were studied by carotid ultrasound between 2012 and 2013. At that time, CV risk was calculated according to the modified EULAR systematic coronary risk evaluation (mSCORE) for RA. A five-year prospective follow-up study was conducted by survival analysis models. The EULAR mSCORE based on the 2015/2016 updated EULAR recommendations and the QRISK3 algorithms were retrospectively tested using baseline data. Results: After 1,984.25 patient-years of follow-up, 23 had died and 27 had experienced CV events. Linearized mortality rate was 1.16/100 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74--1.73). Adjusting for age, gender and disease duration, a model with carotid plaques (Hazard ratio [HR]: 6.10 [95% CI:0.74--50.0]; p = 0.09) and another model with carotid plaques and QRISK3 (HR for carotid plaques: 6.12 [95% CI: 0.74--50.5]; p = 0.09 and HR for each 1% in QRISK3: 1.03 [95% CI: 0.99--1.07], p = 0.11, respectively were the best predictors of death whereas a model with carotid plaques (HR: 5.25 [95% CI:1.41--19.50]; p = 0.01) and another model with carotid plaques and QRISK3 (HR for carotid plaques: 5.13 [95% CI: 1.36--19.3]; p = 0.02 and HR for each 1% in QRISK3: 1.03 [95% CI: 0.99--1.07], p = 0.12, respectively, were the best predictors of CV events. In contrast, the mSCORE was a weaker predictor of the risk of death or CV events. Conclusions: The presence of carotid plaques predicts the development of CV events and death in patients with RA. The predictable capacity of carotid plaques and QRISK3 is higher than that of mSCORE in RA patients.

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