Abstract: Through assessment of wind-wave directional spectra, we provide a comprehensive explanation of the projected 21st Century changes in the global wind-wave climatology under a high green-house emissions scenario. Using a seven-member wave climate projection ensemble, we estimate wave climate changes by comparing present and projected climatologies. Clustering techniques are applied to define regional patterns of change with homogenous behavior. The underlying mechanisms behind the changes are also explored by exploiting the relationship between the wave generation area and the effective energy flux propagating toward a target location. A robust transition from positive to negative trends in Southern Ocean westerly swells is observed around 45?S. The increasing signal found in the southernmost swells propagates north beyond 30?N, contributing significantly to the projected changes in tropical regions such as the tropical southern Atlantic and tropical southeastern Pacific. Results highlight the great complexity of the Pacific Ocean due to the convergence of multiple wave systems with different geneses. In the northern basins, the combined effect of the ice melting and a poleward shift of the storm track drives an increase of the northernmost westerly swells. This is countered by a decreasing trend projected in the main wave systems propagating in the North Atlantic Ocean. A poleward shift of trade-induced waves due to the Hadley cell expansion can also be observed globally, causing a clear dipole change pattern in the tropical southern Atlantic and tropical Indian oceans.

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