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Abstract: Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5?15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5?15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world?s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.
Fuente: Nature Climate Change volume 9, pages711-718(2019)
Publisher: Springer Nature
Publication date: 01/09/2019
No. of pages: 59
Publication type: Article
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
ISSN: 1758-678X,1758-6798
Publication Url: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0542-5#auth-27
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MORIM, JOAO
HEMER, MARK
WANG, XIAOLAN L.
CARTWRIGHT, NICK
TRENHAM, CLAIRE
SEMEDO, ALVARO
YOUNG, IAN
BRICHENO, LUCY
PAULA CAMUS BRAÑA
CASAS-PRAT, MERCÈ
ERIKSON, LI
MENTASCHI, LORENZO
MORI, NOBUHITO
SHIMURA, TOMOYA
TIMMERMANS, BEN
AARNES, OLE
BREIVIK, ØYVIND
BEHRENS, ARNO
DOBRYNIN, MIKHAIL
MELISA MENENDEZ GARCIA
STANEVA, JOANA
WEHNER, MICHAEL
WOLF, JUDITH
KAMRANZAD, BAHAREH
WEBB, ADREAN
STOPA, JUSTIN
ANDUTTA, FERNANDO
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