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How well do CMIP5 Earth System Models simulate present climate conditions in Europe and Africa?: a performance comparison for the downscaling community

Abstract: The present study assesses the ability of seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to reproduce present climate conditions in Europe and Africa. This is done from a downscaling perspective, taking into account the requirements of both statistical and dynamical approaches. ECMWF's ERA-Interim reanalysis is used as reference for an evaluation of circulation, temperature and humidity variables on daily timescale, which is based on distributional similarity scores. To additionally obtain an estimate of reanalysis uncertainty, ERA-Interim's deviation from the Japanese Meteorological Agency JRA-25 reanalysis is calculated. Areas with considerable differences between both reanalyses do not allow for a proper assessment, since ESM performance is sensitive to the choice of reanalysis. For use in statistical downscaling studies, ESM performance is computed on the grid-box scale and mapped over a large spatial domain covering Europe and Africa, additionally highlighting those regions where significant distributional differences remain even for the centered/zero-mean time series. For use in dynamical downscaling studies, performance is specifically assessed along the lateral boundaries of the three CORDEX domains defined for Europe, the Mediterranean Basin and Africa

Other publications of the same journal or congress with authors from the University of Cantabria

 Authorship: Brands S., Herrera S., Fernández J., Gutiérrez J.,

 Fuente: Climate Dynamics, 2013, 41, 803-817

Publisher: Springer

 Publication date: 01/08/2013

No. of pages: 15

Publication type: Article

 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1742-8

ISSN: 0930-7575,1432-0894

 Spanish project: CGL2010-22158-C02; CGL2010-21869

 European project: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/243888/EU/Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world/FUME/

Publication Url: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1742-8