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Seasonal probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean

Abstract: Coastal flooding due to tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major concern in low-lying areas of the North Indian Ocean. In the past few years, there have been devastating TCs (e.g. Nargis and Layla in the Bay of Bengal and Gonu in the Arabian Sea) that have galvanised efforts to better understand and forecast such events. Here, we focus on the role of sea-surface temperature (SST) as a predictor of TC intensification. We develop a statistical downscaling model that identifies patterns of large-scale SST associated with TC activity in terms of occurrence rate and expected tracks. Finally, we use the Climate Forecast System v2 to construct a probabilistic forecast of TC activity for the coming months/season.We demonstrate that this approach is an integral component of a very early TC warning system.

 Congreso: International Conference on Flood Management ICFM6 (6th : 2014 : São Paulo,Brazil)

Editorial: John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management

 Año de publicación: 2016

Tipo de publicación: Comunicación a Congreso

 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12197

ISSN: 1753-318X

Url de la publicación: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jfr3.12197/pdf

Autores/as

ANTONIO ESPEJO HERMOSA

JAVIER DIEZ SIERRA

AL-YAHYAI, S.