Abstract: Coastal flooding due to tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major concern in low-lying areas of the North Indian Ocean. In the past few years, there have been devastating TCs (e.g. Nargis and Layla in the Bay of Bengal and Gonu in the Arabian Sea) that have galvanised efforts to better understand and forecast such events. Here, we focus on the role of sea-surface temperature (SST) as a predictor of TC intensification. We develop a statistical downscaling model that identifies patterns of large-scale SST associated with TC activity in terms of occurrence rate and expected tracks. Finally, we use the Climate Forecast System v2 to construct a probabilistic forecast of TC activity for the coming months/season.We demonstrate that this approach is an integral component of a very early TC warning system.

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