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On the projected changes in New Zealand''s wave climate and its main drivers

Abstract: Wave climatologies from historical and projected simulations of the ACCESS1.0, MIROC5 and CNRM-CM5 Global Circulation Models (GCM) were sourced from the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) and downscaled using the SWAN wave model. Biases between GCM's historical simulations and a regional hindcast were assessed, and the two best-performing models (ACCESS1.0, MIROC5) had their projections analysed. A general increase in wave height and period was observed along the south/west, together with a decrease in Hs along the north/east coasts. The projected near-term (NEA21C) period shows mostly a Hs increase, whilst for the long-term (END21C) period, increased and decreased Hs are present. The areas of statistically significant changes are larger in the END21C than in the NEA21C period. The wave direction change is counter-clockwise along the west and clockwise along the east coasts. This study is a first assessment of historical and projected GCM-forced waves along New Zealand and the database we generated can be of great value for renewable energy research, risk assessment and the mitigation of future coastal hazards.

 Autoría: Albuquerque J., Antolínez J.A.A., Méndez F.J., Coco G.,

 Fuente: New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, 2024, 58(1), 89-126

 Editorial: Taylor & Francis

 Año de publicación: 2024

 Nº de páginas: 37

 Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

 DOI: 10.1080/00288330.2022.2135116

 ISSN: 0028-8330,1175-8805

 Proyecto español: PID2019-107053RB-I00