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Application of the Montecarlo method for the validation of the budget of a suezmax type ship

Abstract: As the name suggests, the budget for the construction of a ship, in this case a Suezmax, means to specifically pre-suppose in economic terms, the activities and movements to carry out during the construction of said ship. The importance of this essential phase of the construction process lie one hand in budgeting a competitive price in the market, but without causing economic losses for the shipyard, in order to make a profit for the company. This study proposes the use of the Monte Carlo method to obtain a greater reliability in the valuation of the Suezmax vessel; in this case, the triangular method will be used, which starting point is based on results obtained from previous research and from which the most likely, most pessimistic and most optimistic ship budget is obtained in order to later perform a simulation. For the realization of said simulation the ship is divided into different items, that will be assigned an optimistic and pessimist percentage based on a likely budget, according to the degree of trust of the shipyard in said concept. The final scope will be the calculation of the management reserve used to rectify any unforeseen item(s) in the construction of the ship.

 Autoría: José María Torres do Rego; Carlos Arsenio Mascaraque Ramírez; Pablo Martínez López; David Salvador Sanz Sánchez

 Fuente: Ship Science & Technology, 2019. 12(24), 33-38

 Editorial: Cotecmar

 Año de publicación: 2019

 Nº de páginas: 6

 Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

 DOI: 10.25043/19098642.177

 ISSN: 2619-645X,1909-8642

 Url de la publicación: https://doi.org/10.25043/19098642.177

Autoría

TORRES DO REGO, JOSÉ MARÍA

CARLOS ARSENIO MASCARAQUE RAMIREZ

MARTÍNEZ LÓPEZ, PABLO