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Comparison of statistical downscaling methods with respect to extreme events over Europe: Validation results from the perfect predictor experiment of the COST Action VALUE

Abstract: Credible information about the properties and changes of extreme events on the regional and local scales is of prime importance in the context of future climate change. Within the EU-COST Action VALUE a comprehensive validation framework for downscaling methods has been developed. Here we present validation results for extremes of temperature and precipitation from the perfect predictor experiment that uses reanalysis-based predictors to isolate downscaling skill. The raw reanalysis output reveals that there is mostly a large bias with respect to the extreme index values at the considered stations across Europe, clearly pointing to the necessity of downscaling. The performance of the downscaling methods is closely linked to their specific structure and setup. All methods using parametric distributions require non-standard distributions to correctly represent marginal aspects of extremes. Also, the performance is much improved by explicitly including a seasonal component, particularly in case of recipitation. With respect to the marginal aspects of extremes the best performance is found for model output statistics (MOS), weather generators (WGs) as well as perfect prognosis (PP) methods using analogues. Spell-length-related extremes of temperature are best assessed by MOS and WGs, spell-length-related extremes of recipitation by MOS and PP methods using analogues. The skill of PP methods with transfer functions varies strongly across the methods and depends on the extreme index, region and season considered.

 Autoría: Hertig E., Maraun D., Bartholy J., Pongracz R., Vrac M., Mares I., Gutiérrez J.M., Wibig J., Casanueva A., Soares P.M.M.,

 Fuente: International Journal of Climatology Volume 39, Issue 9 July 2019 Pages 3846-3867

Editorial: John Wiley and Sons Ltd

 Fecha de publicación: 01/07/2019

Nº de páginas: 21

Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

DOI: 10.1002/joc.5469

ISSN: 0899-8418,1097-0088

Url de la publicación: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5469

Autores/as

HERTIG, ELKE

MARAUN, DOUGLAS

BARTHOLY, JUDIT

PONGRACZ, RITA

VRAC, MATHIEU

MARES, ILEANA

JOSE MANUEL GUTIERREZ LLORENTE

WIBIG, JOANA

SOARES, PEDRO M.M.