Abstract: The evolution of the vulnerability of the Spanish power generation system with respect to the primary energy resources has been assessed by three new indexes developed from biodiversity analysis. The first of these indexes measures, in percentage, the uniformity of the primary energy resources in the system. The second one quantifies the diversity by means of the equivalent number of primary energy resources that are present in similar proportions in the system. The third one allows the calculation of the diversity reduction in the system with the non-evenness of these primary energy resources. They have been applied to the energy results of a stochastic linear model, developed with the software GAMS, in order to demonstrate their usefulness. In this model several generation technologies have been considered (nuclear, clean coal technologies, etc), and also several scenarios of fossil fuel costs. The number of primary energy resources that have to be used depends on the degree of uniformity of the system and on their influence on diversity. In the Spanish case, if nuclear generation is not considered as an energy source, the diversity of the system will diminish significantly in the future, making the system more vulnerable.
Autoría: Fernando Delgado San Román; Alfredo Ortiz Fernández; Carlos J. Renedo Estébanez; Severiano Pérez Remesal; Mario Mañana Canteli; Alberto Arroyo Gutiérrez
Fuente: Interciencia: Revista de ciencia y tecnología de América, 2011, 36(6), 417-422
Editorial: Asociación Interciencia
Año de publicación: 2011
Nº de páginas: 6
Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista