Abstract: Background: It has become widely accepted that cognitive deficits in schizophrenia are related to functional outcome. However, it remains to be seen whether these associations are relevant for predicting which cases will have a global functional recovery. In this study, we attempt to determine whether global functional recovery (integrating social and occupational outcomes) after first-episode schizophrenia (FES) can be predicted by cognitive variables. Method: A total of 131 FES patients with functional deficits (n=97) and functional recovery (n=34) as determined at 1-year follow-up were examined. Neuropsychological, sociodemographic, pre-morbid and clinical data at baseline were analysed using independent groups comparisons and a logistic regression method. Results: Sustained attention and negative symptoms emerged as significant predictors of good global functional outcome. Although the model revealed a high accuracy (91%) in the classification of patients with functional deficits, it was unacceptably low (26%) in the classification of patients with global functional recovery. Conclusions: The limitations found in the prediction of a favourable global functional outcome may well be an indication for a need to address the role of other factors not commonly included in longitudinal studies of long-term outcomes in schizophrenia.

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