Abstract: Waves produced by tropical cyclones (TCs) can be estimated using non-stationary wave models forced with timevarying wind fields. However, dynamical simulations are time and computationally demanding at regional-scale domains since high temporal and spatial resolutions are required to correctly simulate TC-induced wave propagation processes. Applications such as early warning systems, coastal risk assessments and future climate projections benefit from fast and accurate estimates of wave fields induced by close-to-real storm tracks geometry. The proposed SHyTCWaves methodology constitutes a novel tool capable of estimating the spatiotemporal variability of directional wave spectra produced by TCs in deep waters, using a hybrid approach and statistical techniques to reduce CPU time effort. This work demonstrates that TC-induced waves can be reconstructed using a stop-motion approach based on the addition of successive 6 h periods of time-varying storm conditions. The developed hybrid model reduces a TC track to a number of segments that are parameterized in terms of 10 representative TC features, and generates a library of cases dynamically pre-computed which allow to ensemble consecutive 6 h analog segments representing the original TC track. The metamodel has been compared and corrected with available satellite data, and its applicability is exemplified for TC Ofa in the South Pacific

Autoría

Descargar referencia