Abstract: This study presents a comprehensive methodology that addresses climate change?induced coastal erosion at the regional scale O (100 km). The use of climate data with high space-time resolution enabled the reconstruction of the shoreline response to cross-shore forcing both historically and throughout the twenty-first century. Cross section?based equilibrium models were combined to assess beach erosion induced by local waves, storm surge, astronomical tide and mean sea-level rise. The approach incorporates the potential impacts that tidal inlets could have on the long-term evolution of adjacent beaches as sink terms in the beaches? budget. The methodology provides probabilistic estimates of coastline recession while accounting for sea level rise uncertainty, both of which are essential aspects for establishing adaptation priorities and efficient fund allocation. The outlined assessment was undertaken on 57 sandy beaches along a 345 km coastline stretch in Asturias, a region in the northwest of Spain open to the Atlantic.

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