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Effects of stochastic wave forcing on probabilistic equilibrium shoreline response across the 21st century including sea-level rise

Abstract: Coastal communities are currently facing the challenge of climate change and coastal retreat. While scientists are moving towards ensemble-modelling approaches to address uncertainties on shoreline evolution predictions, they rarely account for the stochastic nature of wave conditions across a variety of temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, seasonal, and interannual). In this contribution, we investigate the effects of the inherent variability of wave conditions on past and future multi-decadal shoreline evolution at the cross-shore transport dominated beach of Truc Vert (France). Using a climate-based wave emulator and variance decomposition method, we address the relative impacts of uncertain wave chronology, sea-level rise and model free parameters on modelled shoreline change, while accounting for possible correlations and interactions among the input variables. This work is done for two different wave-driven equilibrium models. The results show that the equilibrium shoreline models respond differently to the ensemble wave forcing, so that the choice of the modelling approach is critical to long-term modelled shoreline variations and the related uncertainties. We find that the modelled shoreline variance is primarily driven by the uncertain wave chronology until mid-21st century, while the uncertainties on future sea-level rise become dominant after 2060 in all the simulated scenarios. We also found that interactions and correlations among the uncertain variables can affect the estimation of shoreline predictions uncertainties. Finally, we provide a perspective on the application of non-stationary wave-related model parameters as a future research avenue for understanding uncertainties in modelled shoreline position.

Otras publicaciones de la misma revista o congreso con autores/as de la Universidad de Cantabria

 Fuente: Coastal Engineering, 2022, 175, 104149

Editorial: Elsevier

 Fecha de publicación: 25/05/2022

Nº de páginas: 18

Tipo de publicación: Artículo de Revista

 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104149

ISSN: 0378-3839,1872-7379

Proyecto español: PID2019-107053RB-I00

Url de la publicación: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104149